Nigeria to Outperform Major Global Economies with Projected 4.3% Growth by 2027, Says IMF

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Nigeria’s economic engine will rev up to 4.3% by 2027, outpacing many of the world’s major economies.

This optimistic forecast, released during the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C., suggests a resilient recovery for the continent’s economic giant.

The data shows a year-on-year acceleration: after a projected 4.0% expansion in 2025, growth is expected to tick up to 4.1% in 2026 before reaching its 2027 target.

At the projected 4.3 per cent growth rate, Nigeria is expected to outperform several advanced economies, including the United States (2.1%), Canada (1.9%), Spain (1.8%) and the United Kingdom (1.3%).

Other economies projected to trail Nigeria include Germany (1.2%), France (0.9%), Japan (0.6%) and Italy (0.5%).

However, the IMF clarified that stronger growth rates do not imply that Nigeria’s economy will surpass these countries in overall size or economic output.

During a media briefing, IMF Division Chief Deniz Igan explained that Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast was revised downward due to global supply chain disruptions.

Specifically, conflicts have driven up the costs of fuel, fertilizer, and shipping, putting pressure on the oil sector.

While rising crude prices may offer some financial cushion, Igan noted that these combined factors will likely moderate growth in 2026 before a more robust recovery takes hold in 2027.

Regarding monetary policy, the IMF stressed that maintaining price stability will require strict inflation management and a focus on steadying the exchange rate.

The Central Bank of Nigeria has set a medium-term target of reducing inflation to a single-digit range of between six and nine per cent as part of its transition to an inflation-targeting framework.

Globally, the IMF projects a slowdown in economic expansion, with growth expected to ease to 3.1 per cent in 2026 and 3.2 per cent in 2027, down from approximately 3.4 per cent recorded in 2024 and 2025.

The Fund noted that the downgrade reflects the lingering effects of geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which has disrupted energy markets and global supply chains.

Headline inflation worldwide is projected to rise to 4.4 per cent in 2026 before moderating to 3.7 per cent in 2027, indicating persistent price pressures.

For sub-Saharan Africa, the IMF highlighted a mixed outlook, noting that while 2025 showed resilience, the region now faces renewed challenges, including weaker global demand, softer commodity prices and declining foreign aid.

Igan disclosed that growth in the region has been revised downward by a cumulative 0.4 percentage points for 2026 and 2027, while inflation is expected to rise from 3.4 per cent in 2025 to five per cent in 2026.

She warned that rising fertiliser costs, environmental pressures and food insecurity remain significant risks, particularly for economies heavily dependent on agriculture.

Also speaking, IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said the Fund is closely monitoring developments in global energy markets in collaboration with institutions such as the World Bank and the International Energy Agency.

He stressed the need for a swift resolution of geopolitical conflicts to stabilise markets and support global recovery.

The IMF’s outlook underscores both the opportunities and vulnerabilities facing Nigeria, as policymakers balance reform efforts with external shocks in a rapidly evolving global economy.