The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) has been ranked third for free cash flow generation by oil companies in Africa by 2024.
This is contained in a State of the African Energy 2024 Outlook report by the African Energy Chamber which ranked oil companies for 2023 to 2024 in terms of free cash flow generation in Africa.
The top 10 national oil companies listed for generating free cash flows in Africa from 2023 to 2024, include Sonatrach, NOC (Libya), NNPC Limited, TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil, Eni, Sonangol, Chevron, Azule Energy, and BP.
The report further stated that in the short term, African projects are aligning more closely with other continents in terms of their free cash flows.
For Libya’s NOC, the recovery in production drives its high position in free cash flow generation, while Algeria’s Sonatrach benefits from stakes in several producing blocks, and partnerships with major companies in Nigeria, and Angola contribute to the national oil companies (NOCs) of these countries featuring in the top 10 list, the report disclosed.
The report from the African Energy Chamber also focused on oil production projections for 2024, noting that Nigeria, Libya, Algeria, and Angola are expected to be the top four producers in Africa for 2023 and 2024, contributing 1.45 million bpd, 1.29 million bpd, 1.19 million bpd, and 1.1 million bpd respectively in 2023, and 1.51 million bpd, 1.31 million bpd, 1.18 million bpd, and 1.01 million bpd respectively in 2024.
These four countries together were projected to account for two-thirds of the total output, with Nigeria alone anticipated to contribute slightly over a fifth of the annual volume, while the other three producers are expected to contribute just under a fifth of the annual average.
However, month-on-month production forecasts for Africa in 2024 indicate a gradual decline from approximately 6.9 million bpd in January to about 6.62 million bpd by December 2024.
OPEC members in Africa, along with Egypt, Chad, and Ghana, are projected to be the primary drivers of oil and condensate output in the region over the next two years.
Egypt, expected to be among the top five producers in Africa, is estimated to flow about 560,000 bpd and 520,000 bpd for the years 2023 and 2024 respectively.
Libya, amid a recovery phase from previous lows due to civil unrest, is projected to witness month-on-month growth in 2024, similar to its neighbour Algeria.
In the short term, National Oil Companies (NOCs), either as primary stakeholders like Algeria’s NOC or as joint venture partners with major companies as seen in Nigeria, are expected to lead oil and condensate production in Africa.
Approximately 40% of the total oil and condensate supply from Africa between 2023 and 2024 is projected to come from NOCs’ stakes in producing fields.
International oil majors such as Shell, TotalEnergies, Eni, BP, Chevron, and ExxonMobil form the second largest company segment in terms of short-term liquids production across Africa.