Nigerian Refineries Hit by Severe Crude Shortfall Despite Surplus Offers – NUPRC

Despite a surplus of available oil, local refineries in Nigeria processed just 28.5 million barrels of crude in the first quarter of 2026.

Data recently released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) reveals a startling disconnect between the oil made available by producers and the amount actually “lifted” by refining plants.

The sharp gap between what was offered and what actually reached the plants has triggered fresh alarm over feedstock shortages threatening the country’s drive to boost domestic refining capacity.

The commission’s data showed that domestic refiners were allocated 61.9 million barrels during the period, while producers went further by offering 68.7 million barrels.

Yet actual deliveries stood at just 28.5 million barrels a conversion rate hovering between 36 and 46 per cent highlighting a stubborn mismatch between crude availability and refinery intake.

In a statement issued on Tuesday, NUPRC Head of Media and Corporate Communications Eniola Akinkuotu said the Commission has continued to enforce the provisions of the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation in accordance with the Petroleum Industry Act.

“While producers have demonstrated strong compliance by offering volumes above allocated thresholds in several instances, actual supplies to domestic refiners remain constrained by prevailing commercial dynamics,” he said.

A monthly breakdown laid bare the persistent under-delivery. In January, producers were required to supply 22.6 million barrels but offered 25.3 million an 11.9 per cent or 2.7 million barrel overshoot yet refiners received only 9.2 million barrels.

February saw the allocation dip to 20.5 million barrels, with producers supplying 19.8 million barrels, falling 700,000 barrels short of target; deliveries edged down to 9.1 million barrels.

March brought a slight uptick as refiners lifted 10.1 million barrels after producers offered 23.6 million barrels — 25.5 per cent above the 18.8 million barrel allocation.

The Commission blamed the recurring shortfall largely on pricing disagreements. Akinkuotu stated: “The current framework allows for market-driven negotiations between producers and refiners. As such, pricing differentials have continued to influence the pace and volume of crude deliveries.”

Despite the gaps, the regulator insisted it remains fully committed to closing the loop.

“Leveraging the framework of the Petroleum Industry Act, 2021, the Commission remains focused on sustaining recent gains in crude oil production while refining the DCSO methodology to enhance transparency and efficiency.

“Our objective is to ensure that domestic refineries are adequately supplied in line with national energy sufficiency goals,” it stated.

Introduced under the PIA to give local refineries first priority on crude and cut Nigeria’s dependence on imported petroleum products, the DCSO has yet to deliver its full promise.