The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Nigeria’s economic growth forecast upward to 4.4% in 2026, citing improved macroeconomic conditions and reform momentum.
This represents a 0.2 percentage point increase from the Fund’s October 2025 projection.
Nigeria’s economic growth is projected to slow down to 4.1% in 2027, according to the IMF’s January 2026 World Economic Outlook.
The Fund attributes this improved outlook to a combination of strong technology investment, supportive fiscal and monetary policies, and the resilience of the private sector.
Globally, the IMF expects a 3.3% growth rate this year, with a slight slowdown to 3.2% in 2027.
Meanwhile, sub-Saharan Africa’s economy is projected to expand by 4.4% in 2026, driven by macroeconomic stabilization and reform efforts in key economies.
The revised forecast is a welcome development, especially as Nigeria continues to navigate global economic uncertainties.
The World Bank has also increased its projection for Nigeria’s economic growth rate for 2026 to 4.4%, up from 3.7% forecasted in June 2025.
Persecondnews reports that Nigeria’s private sector has been the engine of economic growth, contributing over 96% to real GDP in 2025.
The non-oil sector, driven by agriculture, finance, trade, and manufacturing, has been the main growth driver.
The Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) remained above the 50-point expansion threshold, signaling continuous economic activity.
Credit to the private sector reached a high of N117.783 trillion by September 2025, a 75.9% increase over two years.
The private sector accounts for about 90% of Nigeria’s GDP, with the government focusing on enabling rather than competing with it.
This has fostered an environment for expansion, with forecasts indicating sustained growth into 2026.
The non-oil sector’s share of total economic activity climbed to 96.56%, reinforcing its role as the backbone of the economy.
Growth in the non-oil sector improved to 3.91%, supported by agriculture, ICT, real estate, financial institutions, trade, and manufacturing.
However, the oil sector growth dropped sharply, expanding by only 5.84% in Q3 2025 compared to a strong 20.46% in Q2.
Average crude oil production fell from 1.68mbpd to 1.64mbpd, reducing oil’s share of GDP to 3.44%.
With new tax reforms expected to begin in 2026, the sustained strength of the non-oil sector presents an opportunity for improved revenue mobilisation.
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