People assess the damage caused by Israeli airstrikes in Beit Hanun, in the northern Gaza Strip
HighlightTrending StoryWorld News

Israeli-Gaza War: Is a Ground Invasion Imminent?

Civilians have reportedly left Gaza City and areas near the border in anticipation of a ground invasion and Netanyahu has called up IDF reservists and ordered 24 villages and towns near the border to be evacuated. The government has also shut off electricity to the region and halted the flow of fuel and goods to Gaza, which has been under blockade by Israel and Egypt for 16 years.

1.9k

According to a 2017 research brief by the RAND corporation, Israel has the military capability to wipe out Hamas, but doing so could perhaps be even riskier than not, given that an even more extreme organization could come into power….

Israel suffered its most devastating attack in decades on Saturday October 7th 2023 when Hamas militants launched thousands of rockets from Gaza and infiltrated several Israeli towns, killing hundreds of people and taking an as-yet-unknown number of hostages, both military and civilian.

Given the scale and brutality of the attack, Israel may launch a ground invasion in Gaza, in addition to the airstrikes the military is already conducting in the region. That could mean a long, bloody battle with significant deaths on both sides, but with Palestinians bearing the brunt of the casualties and destruction.

The death toll on both sides is already in the hundreds, with injuries from airstrikes in Gaza and rocket attacks and gunfights in southern Israel numbering in the thousands. The Israel Defense Forces, or IDF, began launching retaliatory strikes shortly after the initial shock invasion Saturday; and on Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu officially declared war against Hamas. Although the next phase of Israel’s operation in Gaza hasn’t yet unfolded, it’s likely to be catastrophic given previous conflicts between Israel and Gaza, as well as Netanyahu’s heightened rhetoric.

“In a way, this is our 9/11,” IDF spokesperson Lt. Col. Richard Hecht said in a video statement posted to the social network X on Sunday. Videos have circulated showing dead Israelis, as well as Israeli civilians being captured by Hamas militants, presumably to be held in Gaza. Though some hostages in Israeli towns near the Gaza border have been freed and their captors killed, many remain in captivity and some are presumed dead.

Netanyahu, meanwhile, has told Gazans to leave the territory and threatened to turn it into “a deserted island,” with many civilians sheltering at schools built by the UN agency for Palestinian Refugees, UNRWA, some of which have been damaged by Israeli airstrikes.

Israel has fought multiple wars against Palestinians and Arab nations including Syria and Egypt; it has also launched ground operations in Gaza, most recently in 2014. Though Israeli military policy is to use disproportionate force in Gaza as a deterrent strategy, that has so far failed to enact durable security, limit Hamas’s ability to strike Israel, or allow space in Israeli politics for any sort of political negotiation which could lead to a more peaceful future.

Civilians have reportedly left Gaza City and areas near the border in anticipation of a ground invasion and Netanyahu has called up IDF reservists and ordered 24 villages and towns near the border to be evacuated. The government has also shut off electricity to the region and halted the flow of fuel and goods to Gaza, which has been under blockade by Israel and Egypt for 16 years.

 

What are the odds of a ground invasion of Gaza?
“I don’t know the likelihood of a ground invasion — I would say, if I were calculating odds, the chances of a ground invasion are greater than they were in previous rounds of violence in Gaza,” Khaled Elgindy, director of the Middle East Institute’s Program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs, said in an interview. “In the past, we’ve seen reports of ground invasions being imminent and they’ve turned out to be inaccurate or even deliberate misinformation put out there by the Israeli military.”

The Netanyahu government has typically preferred airstrikes to retaliate against Hamas’s rocket attacks, as they minimize Israeli casualties and inflict serious damage in Gaza. During the last major attack on Gaza, in May 2021, Israeli airstrikes ostensibly targeting Hamas leadership and targets also hit civilian sites including media offices, residential buildings, and health care facilities. More than 250 Palestinians and 13 Israelis were killed in the 11-day conflict.

Daniel Byman, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies said, “Netanyahu has always been very cautious around widespread use of military forcetold the press. “He hasn’t done the kind of big wars like we saw in Lebanon in 2006, so he tends to be cautious. But it may be hard to be cautious in these circumstances.

Israel has put boots on the ground in Gaza before and occupied the territory from 1967 to 2005, when it unilaterally withdrew from the region.

When they are ordered, ground incursions tend to be horrific, causing devastating infrastructure damage and heavy civilian casualties on the Palestinian side. In 2014, simmering conflict in Gaza exploded into a major Hamas rocket offensive into Israel, which responded with a 19-day ground invasion. Though there was an Egypt-mediated ceasefire in August of that year, 2,251 Palestinians — including 1,462 civilians — and 73 Israelis were killed in the fighting, according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

According to Natan Sachs, director of the Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, given the nature of the attack and current public and political sentiment in Israel, a ground invasion was “very likely.”

“The mood in Israel is such that another round of airstrikes or something like that is seen to pale in comparison to the task,” he said, “not only for the general mood of vengeance in the country — which is certainly there — but also the question of how can Hamas capabilities actually be degraded and a repeat of some sort be prevented.”

Operation Cast Lead in 2008 and 2009 wreaked havoc on the Gaza Strip; the first day of airstrikes alone killed 230 Palestinians. After a week of intensive aerial bombardment, Israeli forces launched a two-week invasion from the north and the east while Israel’s navy shelled the area from the sea. Overall, though sources vary in specifics, around 1,400 Palestinians and nine Israelis were killed during that operation.

According to a 2017 research brief by the RAND corporation, Israel has the military capability to wipe out Hamas, but doing so could perhaps be even riskier than not, given that an even more extreme organization could come into power — or that Israel could be put into the position of governing the territory itself. “As such, Israel’s grand strategy became ‘mowing the grass’ — accepting its inability to permanently solve the problem and instead repeatedly targeting leadership of Palestinian militant organizations to keep violence manageable.”

“We want to break their bones without putting them in the hospital,” one Israeli defense analyst told the research brief’s authors.

What a Ground Invasion Might Look Like
Just few days into the war, what comes next is impossible to predict. But given what’s known about previous conflicts and the capabilities of both sides, the coming weeks are likely to be bloody. UN agencies have urged both sides to avoid civilian casualties, though reports of civilian deaths on both sides are already high.

“The immediate phase will be Israel sweeping up its own villages and towns, making sure that there are no Hamas fighters left there,” Sachs said. The IDF confirmed that assessment in an email statement.

Israel will then need to gather intelligence on where Hamas leadership is and determine the number of hostages missing and their locations, which will be a challenging task, Sachs said.

International leaders have affirmed unwavering support for Israel, and the US has pledged to send additional military materiel, “including munitions,” according to a press release from the Department of Defense, with the first tranche of security assistance heading to Israel as soon as possible.

In addition to the material support, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said in Sunday afternoon’s statement that the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group, which includes an aircraft carrier and multiple guided missile destroyers, has been deployed to the Eastern Mediterranean.

“We have also taken steps to augment U.S. Air Force F-35, F-15, F-16, and A-10 fighter aircraft squadrons in the region,” the statement read.

Despite the overwhelming Israeli and US military might it faces, Hamas has not yet shown signs of backing down.

“Hamas has lost the element of surprise but it has likely prepared to stick in for the long haul, probably has a lot of supplies,” Colin Clarke, research director at the Soufan Group, said in an email. “I think Hamas still has a robust arsenal of rockets and could be planning more ambushes. I wouldn’t be surprised to see suicide bombings, if Hamas is able to infiltrate more operatives onto Israeli soil. But once Israel gears up and mobilizes, its military is likely to make quick work of Hamas, killing and capturing its leaders and decimating its infrastructure.”

And despite the possibility — even likelihood — of serious casualties in the coming days and weeks, Sachs said, “Israel is not about to de-escalate now.”

 

Culled From Vox

Leave a comment

Related Articles

NNPC Ltd. hosts NSC boss, pledges support for revitalization of Nigerian football

In a significant move to boost Nigerian football, the Nigerian National Petroleum...

Nigerian youths essential to repositioning Africa, says VP Shettima

Vice President Kashim Shettima has reaffirmed the federal government’s commitment to youth...

Just in: Simon Ekpa ‘ll be extradited to Nigeria to face charges – Defence Headquarters

The Nigerian Defence Headquarters, Abuja, has announced plans to extradite Simon Ekpa,...

NPA’s CEO Dantsoho Makes History as First Nigerian Chairman of PMAWCA

In a groundbreaking achievement, Dr. Abubakar Dantsoho, Managing Director of the Nigerian...

Just in: ICC issues arrest warrants for Netanyahu, others

The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister...

Save for rainy day, Federal Accountant General urges state govts, emphasizes transparency, accountability

In a bid to ensure financial stability during adverse situations and economic...

Sacked UNIZIK VC Odoh to Tinubu: You can’t fire me through press release

Sacked Vice-Chancellor of Nnamdi Azikiwe University (UNIZIK), in Awka, Anambra State, Prof....

UBA to empower MSME’s with wealth management strategies at its ‘Built to Last’ series

As part of its commitment to deepen the growth and sustainability of...

Olopade assumes office as NSC DG, promises new lease of life for Nigerian sports

Bukola Olopade had assumed office as the Director General of the resuscitated...

Amid High Inflation Rate, IMF Pledges Support for Nigeria’s Economic Reforms

International Monetary Fund (IMF) President Kristalina Georgieva and her team met with...

Nigeria’s Super Falcons Ajibade, Nnadozie, Nominated for 2024 CAF Women’s Player of the Year

The Confederation of African Football (CAF) has announced the nominees for the...

Just in: FG announces reshuffle of governing councils at FUOYE, Kogi varsity

The Federal Government has made changes to the governing councils of Federal...

Exclusive: Eguavoen Opens Up on Declining NFF Contract Extension, Reveals Reasons

Super Eagles Coach, Austin Eguavoen, has revealed why he declined the Nigeria...

Boost for Nigeria’s Oil Production As NNPC’s Utapate Crude Grade Hits Global Oil Market

In a major boost for Nigeria’s crude oil production, revenue generation, and...

Just in: FG sacks varsity Pro-Chancellor for misconduct

The Minister of Education, Dr. Tunji Alausa, has announced the removal of...

Just in: INEC presents Certificates of Return to Ondo Gov. Aiyedatiwa, deputy

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has presented Certificates of Return to...

Breaking: Senate sacks Danladi Umar, Code of Conduct Tribunal chairman  

Following proven allegations of gross misconduct and unacceptable behaviour, the Senate on...

Just in: South Africa takes over G20 Presidency from Brazil, first African nation to lead the bloc

South Africa has taken over the presidency of the G20 from Brazil,...

Tinubu submits 3 INEC REC, federal commissioner-nominees for Senate’s approval

President Bola Tinubu has sent the name of Ondo Resident Electoral Commissioner,...