By Omoyeni Ojeifo
As political calculations intensify ahead of the 2027 elections, a research professor at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs (NIIA), Femi Otubanjo, has predicted that President Bola Tinubu may face challenges in Rivers State despite the support of former Governor Nyesom Wike.
Otubanjo, during an Arise News interview, monitored by PerSecondNews on Monday, faulted the confidence that Wike would be able to secure Rivers State for Tinubu in 2027.
“I dare say that Wike has misled Tinubu and they will pay for it. In spite of Wike’s bravado about delivering Rivers, Rivers State is made up of rational, intelligent people who are able to make choices,” he said.
According to the professor, he believes the political situation in Rivers could work against the expectation that the state will automatically follow Wike’s preferred direction in 2027.
“You cannot assume that because Wike says he will deliver Rivers, Rivers people will follow him. The people have their own minds and will make their own choices,” he noted.
Otubanjo dismissed the assumption that governors and political leaders can automatically transfer their influence to candidates during elections.
“There are governors in this coming election that may not be important. I’m thinking of the governors of the South-East, the governor of Rivers and the governor of Oyo State.”
He maintained that Rivers voters could ultimately make decisions based on their own interests rather than simply following the position of political leaders.
“Rivers people are rational, intelligent people who are able to make choices. They are going to look at what is in their interest and decide,” he said.
Despite his concerns about Rivers, Otubanjo believed the President has a significant advantage from the number of governors now supporting his re-election bid.
“Today Tinubu has 31 governors behind him. Governors have resources. They have the resources of the state and, given the legality that is going on now, they also have the resources of the local government,” he emphasized.
He concluded that while Rivers and some other states may prove difficult for Tinubu, most governors backing the President are likely to work for his victory in 2027.
“You are going to find that the majority of governors will work for him and that he will have victory. I’m ready to stick my neck out on that as an analyst,” he added.
The Professor of International Affairs, further argued that while governors remain important political assets, their influence should not be treated as an assurance of electoral victory, particularly in states where voters may have different interests.
“Governors are strategic assets, but they are not the voters. You have to be careful about assuming that because a governor says he will deliver a state, the people will follow,” he noted.
Otubanjo’s assessment adds a fresh dimension to the political calculations ahead of 2027, suggesting that while governors remain important to the campaigns, their influence may not necessarily determine how voters in every state cast their ballots.
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