IMF Ups Nigeria’s Growth Forecast to 4.4% in 2026, Cited Reform

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Nigeria’s economic growth forecast upward to 4.4% in 2026, citing improved macroeconomic conditions and reform momentum.

This represents a 0.2 percentage point increase from the Fund’s October 2025 projection.

Nigeria’s economic growth is projected to slow down to 4.1% in 2027, according to the IMF’s January 2026 World Economic Outlook.

The Fund attributes this improved outlook to a combination of strong technology investment, supportive fiscal and monetary policies, and the resilience of the private sector.

Globally, the IMF expects a 3.3% growth rate this year, with a slight slowdown to 3.2% in 2027.

Meanwhile, sub-Saharan Africa’s economy is projected to expand by 4.4% in 2026, driven by macroeconomic stabilization and reform efforts in key economies.

The revised forecast is a welcome development, especially as Nigeria continues to navigate global economic uncertainties.

The World Bank has also increased its projection for Nigeria’s economic growth rate for 2026 to 4.4%, up from 3.7% forecasted in June 2025.

Persecondnews reports that Nigeria’s private sector has been the engine of economic growth, contributing over 96% to real GDP in 2025.

The non-oil sector, driven by agriculture, finance, trade, and manufacturing, has been the main growth driver.

The Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) remained above the 50-point expansion threshold, signaling continuous economic activity.

Credit to the private sector reached a high of N117.783 trillion by September 2025, a 75.9% increase over two years.

The private sector accounts for about 90% of Nigeria’s GDP, with the government focusing on enabling rather than competing with it.

This has fostered an environment for expansion, with forecasts indicating sustained growth into 2026.

The non-oil sector’s share of total economic activity climbed to 96.56%, reinforcing its role as the backbone of the economy.

Growth in the non-oil sector improved to 3.91%, supported by agriculture, ICT, real estate, financial institutions, trade, and manufacturing.

However, the oil sector growth dropped sharply, expanding by only 5.84% in Q3 2025 compared to a strong 20.46% in Q2.

Average crude oil production fell from 1.68mbpd to 1.64mbpd, reducing oil’s share of GDP to 3.44%.

With new tax reforms expected to begin in 2026, the sustained strength of the non-oil sector presents an opportunity for improved revenue mobilisation.