The capture of Nicolás Maduro in a U.S. raid triggered a drop in oil prices this Monday.
Markets are bracing for a surge in exports from Venezuela, home to the world’s largest oil reserves.
Such a supply spike threatens to deepen the recent downward trend in global oil prices by adding to an existing global surplus.
In morning trade in Asia, Brent Crude was down 0.21 per cent at $60.62 per barrel while West Texas Intermediate was off 0.35 per cent at $57.12, both off earlier lows.
US forces attacked Caracas in the early hours of Saturday, bombing military targets and spiriting away Maduro and his wife to face federal narcotrafficking charges in New York.
US President Donald Trump has said that the United States will now ‘run’ Venezuela and send US companies to fix its badly dilapidated oil infrastructure.
After years of under-investment and sanctions, Venezuela currently pumps around one million barrels per day, down from around 3.5 mb/d in 1999.
But analysts say that alongside other major questions about Venezuela’s future, substantially lifting its oil production will not be easy or quick.
‘Any recovery in production would require substantial investment given the crumbling infrastructure resulting from years of mismanagement and underinvestment’, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo told AFP.
Investing today also holds little appeal – oil prices are weighed down by a supply glut and fell in 2025 despite significant growth headwinds like Trump’s tariff war and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
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