Rwandans head to polls as Kagame seeks to extend two-decade rule

Voting commenced in Rwanda on Monday as polls opened nationwide for presidential and parliamentary elections, with President Paul Kagame expected to secure a decisive win and continue his tenure as the country’s leader.

Following the exclusion of several prominent critics and potential rivals from the race, Kagame, who has effectively led Rwanda as de facto leader since the 1994 genocide and held the presidency since 2000, faces a relatively unchallenging election with only two opponents.

Only two of the eight potential candidates—Frank Habineza of the Democratic Green Party and Philippe Mpayimana, an independent—received clearance to run against President Kagame.

The candidate list is identical to the 2017 election, in which Kagame won a landslide victory with an overwhelming 99% of the vote.

With 65 percent of the country’s population aged under 30, Kagame — who is running for a fourth term — is the only leader most Rwandans have ever known.

People praise Kagame, 66, for his role in rebuilding Rwanda after the devastating genocide that killed about 800,000 people, mostly Tutsis and moderate Hutus.

However, his government has been widely condemned by human rights organizations for its authoritarian nature, suppressing media freedom and political dissent through arbitrary arrests, murders, and forced disappearances.

Internationally, Rwanda faces accusations of inciting unrest in the neighboring Democratic Republic of the Congo, where a UN report claims Rwandan soldiers are fighting alongside M23 rebels in the unstable eastern region.

On Monday, over 9 million Rwandan voters will cast their ballots at 2,433 polling stations, marking a significant change in the country’s electoral process by holding the presidential and legislative elections simultaneously for the first time.

The polls opened at 7:00 a.m. (0500 GMT), and counting will start as soon as they close at 3:00 p.m. (1300 GMT). As the tallying progresses, we expect to release partial results.

Kagame has consistently won landslides in past elections, securing over 93% of the vote in 2003, 2010, and 2017, with his most recent victory garnering an overwhelming 98.79% of the vote.

In contrast, his opponents, Habineza and Mpayimana, received a mere 0.48% and 0.73%, respectively.

Kagame has also overseen contentious changes to the constitution, which have shortened presidential terms from seven to five years and effectively reset the clock on his tenure, potentially enabling him to remain in power until 2034.

The electoral commission barred Diane Rwigara, a prominent critic of President Kagame, from running in the election due to irregularities in her application documents.

This is the second time that the electoral process has prevented Rwigara from participating.

Ahead of the election, Amnesty International said Rwanda’s opposition faces “severe restrictions… as well as threats, arbitrary detention, prosecution, trumped-up charges, killings, and enforced disappearances.”

The disparity between Kagame and his opponents was starkly apparent during the three-week campaign, as the well-organized and well-funded machinery of the ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front went into overdrive.

The streets were awash with the party’s colours—red, white, and blue—and its slogans, such as “Tora Kagame Paul” and PK24,” emblazoned on pennants, flags, posters, and banners, creating a ubiquitous presence that seemed to dwarf the efforts of his rivals.

Despite facing criticism from many quarters, Kagame remains highly popular in Rwanda, thanks to his economic development achievements.

Although the World Bank reports that nearly half of the population lives on a meagre $2.15 or less per day, Kagame’s leadership has spearheaded impressive economic growth, averaging 7.2% annually from 2012 to 2022, and invested in infrastructure development, including hospitals and roads, which has improved the quality of life for many Rwandans.

“He has made great achievements; he has helped our children to go to school, increased the number of teachers, and he also gave us health insurance,” Venantia Nyirangendo, 51, said during the final RPF rally on Saturday.

“Without him in power, this country would collapse. It’s good that he is our leader; we all love him.”

Unlike Kagame’s rallies, which have drawn massive crowds, his opponents have had a much harder time garnering support, with some events barely attracting a hundred attendees, a stark contrast to the thousands who flock to see the incumbent president.

“It’s good to see that people are no longer afraid to listen to other candidates,” Mpayimana said, but added, “We are facing a candidate who is too strong.”

In the concurrent parliamentary election, over 500 candidates are vying for 80 seats in the Chamber of Deputies.

Direct elections will fill 53 of these seats, and various groups, including women (24 seats), youth (2 seats), and people with disabilities (1 seat), who must run as independents, will fill the remaining seats.

The ruling RPF currently has 40 seats, its allies have 11, and the Green Party has two.

Indirect elections for the reserved seats will take place on Tuesday.