2027 Polls: Rising Violence Fears and Declining INEC Trust Threaten Voter Turnout

As preparations intensify for the 2027 general elections, escalating fears of violence, waning confidence in INEC, and deep-seated distrust in electoral institutions threaten to suppress Nigerian voter turnout.

According to Yiaga Africa’s third National Voting Intentions Survey (NVIS 3.0), although 84% of Nigerians express a strong desire to vote, significant systemic obstacles risk deterring them from actually casting their ballots.

The civil society group is, therefore, calling for a threat-based national election security plan by November 2026, with priority attention to the North-East, North-West and North-Central.

The plan, it said, should be developed through the Inter-Consultative Committee on Election Security (ICCES), with emphasis on protecting voters, rather than only election materials.

The call came on Wednesday, October 7, 2026, as Yiaga Africa released the survey titled, “Willing but Wary: How Nigerians Intend to Vote in 2027.”

The survey involved 2,470 Nigerians aged 18 and above across all 36 states and the FCT, interviewed by telephone and face-to-face in rural communities in September 2026.

“Nigerians have not given up on elections. They want to vote, see it as their duty and believe their votes can make a difference, but conditions remain a serious concern,” Safiya Bichi, Head, Knowledge Management and Learning, Yiaga Africa, stated in the report emailed to PerSecondNews on Wednesday.

Although 84 per cent said they were likely or very likely to vote, the proportion who were very likely to vote has continued to fall, from 52 per cent in December 2025 to 48 per cent in March and 47 per cent in September.

“What stands between that willingness and the ballot box is fear, distrust and money. Low turnout in Nigeria is a conversion problem, not an apathy problem,” it said.

The survey also found out that 61 per cent said fear of violence could prevent them from voting, rising sharply to 78 per cent in the North-East.

Only 41 per cent were very certain of their voting choice, while 83 per cent said they would be more likely to vote if security improves, making insecurity the biggest barrier to participation.

“The responsibility for fixing low turnout lies with the institutions and actors who control security, credibility and logistics, because willingness alone cannot guarantee participation at the ballot,” Bichi explained.

Confidence in INEC has also fallen sharply to 34 per cent from 45 per cent in both previous survey rounds, while distrust reached 62 per cent in the South-East and 57 per cent in the South-South.

The survey found that 49 per cent trust BVAS accreditation and IReV result transmission, while awareness of electoral reforms rose from 24 per cent in December 2025 to 62 per cent.

“INEC should make a binding public commitment to real-time upload of all polling unit results to IReV, publish and stress-test its results management protocol, and build confidence,” the group stated.

Yiaga Africa also called on the judiciary to resolve pre-election candidacy disputes before ballots are printed and publish clear timelines for election petitions.

Political parties and candidates were urged to campaign on costed plans for security and the economy, sign the Peace Accord and honour an enforceable anti-vote-buying pledge.

The survey also found that 54 per cent disapproved of the President’s performance, while 71 per cent rated the economy as poor or very poor.

A desire for change in leadership led voter motivations at 49 per cent, while the economy and jobs recorded 38 per cent and security 36 per cent.

“These findings suggest that perceptions of government performance and prevailing economic conditions will weigh heavily on voter choices, while security and jobs remain major priorities for Nigerians,” it stated.

Young people showed weaker voting intentions, with 40 per cent very likely to vote compared with 64 per cent among respondents aged 61 and above.

Young respondents also reported greater fear of electoral violence, lower trust in INEC and substantially greater reliance on social media for election information.

The judiciary recorded weak public confidence, with 63 per cent expressing little or no confidence in its ability to resolve electoral disputes fairly.

The figure rose to 81 per cent in the South-South, indicating limited confidence in the judiciary as the final avenue for resolving contested results.

Yiaga Africa called on civil society and the media to shift voter education from exhortation to assurance, targeting young people, women and under-reached communities.

The organisation also called for stronger efforts to counter election misinformation ahead of the presidential election scheduled for January 16, 2027.

YIAGA said while Nigerians appear willing to participate in the 2027 elections, the survey highlights a worrying gap between that willingness and confidence in the conditions surrounding the vote, particularly security, electoral credibility, economic conditions and dispute resolution.