Nigeria’s Oil Output Declines Sharply in February Amid Persistent Challenges

Nigeria’s total hydrocarbon output, comprising crude oil and condensates, saw a sharp 9% month-on-month contraction in February 2026.

According to the latest data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), daily production fell to 1.483 million barrels (mbpd), down from the 1.627 mbpd achieved in January.

This decline underscores a persistent downward trend in national output levels as reported in the commission’s latest production audit.

“Lowest and Peak Combined crude oil and Condensate were 1.52 million bopd and 1.82 million bopd respectively. The average crude oil production represents 95% of OPEC quota (1.5 mbpd),” the report stated.

It further detailed that daily average production stood at 1,544,345 barrels per day, made up of 1,421,960 barrels per day of crude oil and 122,385 barrels per day of condensate.

On a year-on-year basis, the output also contracted by 11 percent, sliding from 1.671 million barrels per day in February 2025 to the current 1.483 million barrels per day figure.

The NUPRC report stopped short of identifying specific reasons for the sustained drop in production.

However, an industry executive, who requested anonymity, pointed to longstanding issues such as aging infrastructure and rampant oil theft in the Niger Delta region as key contributors.

“With the one million programme of the NUPRC, we expected oil output to be rising at this time. The slide in production must be due to many factors, including aged facilities and oil theft in the Niger Delta,” the source remarked.

This latest development underscores Nigeria’s failure to achieve the 1.8 million barrels per day production target outlined in the 2026 national budget, even as international oil prices have hovered above $100 per barrel.

The 2026 budget was prepared on cautious projections, including a crude oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, an anticipated daily production volume of 1.84 million barrels, and an exchange rate of N1,400 to the US dollar.

In a separate development, the NUPRC has completed the pre-qualification phase for investors interested in the 50 oil blocks offered under the 2025 Licensing Round.

The Commission announced that successful applicants have been notified and will now gain access to essential data to prepare their technical and commercial bids.

“The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) wishes to inform the public that it has completed the pre-qualification stage of the 2025 Licensing Round and has notified successful applicants accordingly,” a statement signed by the Head of Media and Strategic Communication, Eniola Akinkuotu, obtained by Persecondnews said.

It added that, effective from March 17, 2026, pre-qualified companies will be allowed to lease data from the two approved sources only, with proof of payment required as a condition for submitting bids.

The move is expected to pave the way for competitive bidding and potential new investments aimed at revitalizing Nigeria’s upstream petroleum sector.