The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a 3.4% expansion in Nigeria’s real GDP for 2025, marking a positive outlook for the country’s economic growth.
This forecast is contained in the IMF’s conclusion of the 2025 Article IV consultation with Nigeria, a regular review of a country’s economic performance and policies.
According to the IMF in a statement on Wednesday, Nigeria’s economic growth is expected to be driven by increased hydrocarbon output, the start-up of a new domestic refinery, and a robust services sector.
“Real GDP is expected to expand by 3.4 percent in 2025, supported by the new domestic refinery, higher oil production and robust services,” the IMF stated.
The IMF also noted that the Nigerian authorities have implemented major reforms over the past two years, which have improved macroeconomic stability and enhanced resilience.
“The authorities have removed costly fuel subsidies, stopped monetary financing of the fiscal deficit and improved the functioning of the foreign exchange market,” the IMF said.
The fund expects inflation to continue to fall in the medium term, citing sustained tight macroeconomic policies and an expected easing in retail fuel prices.
“Inflation should decline further in the medium-term with continued tight macroeconomic policies and a projected easing of retail fuel prices.”
The IMF’s forecast is a positive development for Nigeria’s economy, which has been facing challenges in recent years.
The country’s growth accelerated to 3.4% in 2024, driven mainly by increased hydrocarbon output and a vibrant services sector.
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